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Exit Scenario Simulator: Investor Return at ₹50 Cr, ₹100 Cr and ₹500 Cr Exits

Model what you get across several exit outcomes, not just the best case. Enter your cheque, entry valuation and dilution, then list exit values with probabilities to see proceeds, multiples, IRR and the probability-weighted return.

QUICK ANSWERYour proceeds at an exit = your ownership at exit × exit value. With 1x non-participating preference you get the higher of your money back (if the exit covers it) or your share. Weight each exit by its probability to get an expected return; early-stage outcomes are dominated by the small chance of a large exit.

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⚠️ Pre-tax illustration, not investment advice.

What the Exit Scenario Simulator does

✅ Any number of exit scenarios
✅ Probability-weighted expected value
✅ 1x preference vs common
✅ Senior preference stack option
✅ IRR for each scenario

How to use the Exit Scenario Simulator

STEP 1
Enter your numbers
Type the figures you know. Every field starts with a realistic example so you can see how it works.
STEP 2
Read the result instantly
Results, tables and the plain-English explanation update as you type. No submit button, no login.
STEP 3
Test scenarios
Change one assumption at a time (valuation, growth, dilution, exit) to see what really moves the outcome.
STEP 4
Share or save
Copy the summary, send it on WhatsApp or print to PDF for your co-founders, board or investment committee.

Thinking in scenarios

Startup outcomes are not a bell curve. A realistic scenario set includes a meaningful chance of zero, some chance of a small acquisition and a small chance of a large exit. The expected value often comes mostly from that last scenario.

Liquidation preference protects you in modest acquisitions. As common shareholders, angels in small exits can receive nothing after later preferred investors take their preference.

Frequently asked questions

How do I estimate exit probabilities?

Use base rates: most early-stage startups fail or return less than capital, a minority return 1–5x and a few percent produce large outcomes. Adjust for the company’s traction and sector.

What happens to angel shares in an acquisition?

The buyer pays per share according to the waterfall in the articles and SHA. Preferred investors take their preference first if it is better than converting; common shares get the rest.

Should I include tax?

Results are pre-tax. Unlisted share gains in India are taxed at 12.5% if held over 24 months (resident individuals, after 23 July 2024).

Is this tool free? Do I need to sign up?

Yes. It is completely free, needs no login and has no usage limit. FastFee builds payment collection software; these startup and investor tools are free resources for founders, angels and fund managers.

Is my data private?

Yes. Everything you type stays in your own browser on this device (local storage). Nothing is uploaded to FastFee. Export or print a copy if you need to keep it.

Use it together with

Liquidation Preference Calculator →Exit waterfall for multiple preferred series: who gets what at any sale value.Investor Return Calculator →Entry valuation, dilution and exit value to proceeds, MOIC and IRR.

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